2023年油价会暴跌吗?

中国石化新闻网讯 据钻机地带网站5月8日报道，BMI油气研究主管Joseph Gatdula表示，油价“大幅回落”的风险越来越大。

Gatdula告诉钻机地带称，鉴于不确定的经济前景，油价大幅回落的风险越来越大，特别是考虑到持续的通货膨胀正影响着全球市场。并补充称，如果通胀依然顽固，利率继续上升，无疑会给油价带来压力，并可能导致油价出现下一轮下跌。

至于美国，Gatdula表示，美联储仍致力于抑制通胀，并警告称，如果通胀继续保持“黏性”上行，将有必要进一步加息。

(相关资料图)

Gatdula对钻机地带表示，利率的不确定性既增加了价格的上行空间（来自那些认为加息很快就会逆转的人），也增加了价格的下行空间。

他补充道，尽管目前，疲软的经济前景正在给价格带来压力，对反弹的预期也不那么令人信服。

Gatdula警告称，价格的另一个风险是对银行系统的“冲击”，导致信贷市场收紧，这也可能引发油价下跌。

尽管BMI负责人指出，该公司并不排除油价暴跌的可能性，但Gatdula概述了该公司认为有两种主要机制可以阻止油价大幅下跌。

他表示，首先是欧佩克+在管理供应方面的决心。并补充道，4月份的意外减产只会强化“欧佩克看跌市场”。

Gatdula继续说道，其次，美国已承诺补充耗尽的美国战略石油储备。最近的市场倾向使美国有望将WTI的目标设定在每桶67～72美元的区间，如果这触发美国政府的采购程序，理论上应该为油价设定一个下限。

PVM Oil Associates的石油分析师Stephen Brennock告诉钻机地带，他强烈怀疑今年油价是否会暴跌。

Brennock表示，尽管经合组织(OECD)的需求前景黯淡，但欧佩克+的供应限制，将确保在未来几个月内实现支持价格的石油平衡。

他补充称，如果油价长期跌破每桶80美元，可以肯定的是，欧佩克将通过进一步减少供应来充当后盾，以确保油价回升至这一关键门槛之上。

到目前为止，布伦特原油2023年的最高收盘价是1月23日的每桶88.19美元。2023年最低的收盘价是5月3日的72.33美元/桶。在撰写本文时，布伦特原油价格为每桶76.16美元。

郝芬 译自 钻机地带

原文如下：

Could the Oil Price Crash in 2023?

A “major pullback” in oil prices is a growing risk, according to Joseph Gatdula, the Head of Oil & Gas Research at BMI.

“Given the uncertain economic outlook, a major pullback in oil prices is a growing risk, especially given the persistent inflation impacting markets globally,” Gatdula told Rigzone.

“A scenario in which inflation remains stubborn and rates continue to increase would undoubtedly put pressure on oil prices and could warrant the next leg down in prices,” he added.

Looking at the U.S., Gatdula said the Federal Reserve remains committed to taming inflation and warned that, should inflation continue to remain “sticky” to the upside, it would warrant further rate hikes.

“The uncertainty around rates is adding both upside (from those believe a reversal in hikes is due shortly) and downside to prices,” Gatdula told Rigzone.

“Although currently, the weak economic outlook is weighing on prices and expectations for a rebound is less convincing,” he added.

Gatdula warned that an additional risk to prices is a “shock” to the banking system resulting in tightened credit markets “that could also trigger a fall in oil prices”.

Although the BMI Head noted that the company doesn’t preclude the probability that oil prices could crash, Gatdula outlined that the business sees two main mechanisms halting a major slide in prices.

“The first being the OPEC+ resolve at managing supply,” he said, adding that “the surprise production cuts in April only reinforce the ‘OPEC Put’”.

“Secondly, the U.S. has committed to refill the depleted U.S. strategic petroleum reserves. Recent guidance puts the U.S. on track to target a range for WTI of $67-72 per barrel which should in theory set a floor for oil prices, should it trigger the U.S. government’s purchasing process,” Gatdula continued.

Stephen Brennock, an Oil Analyst at PVM Oil Associates, told Rigzone he strongly doubts that oil prices will crash this year.

“Irrespective of the darkening demand outlook in the OECD, supply restraint from OPEC+ will ensure a price-supportive oil balance prevails in the coming months,” Brennock said.

“Should oil prices dip below $80 per barrel on a prolonged basis, you can bet that OPEC will act as a backstop by further reducing supply to ensure prices recover above this key threshold,” he added.

Brent’s highest 2023 close, so far, was registered on January 23 at $88.19 per barrel. It’s lowest 2023 close, so far, was seen on May 3, at $72.33 per barrel. At the time of writing, Brent is trading at $76.16 per barrel.